do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

2011a) and requires further examination. These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways. The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. For observed rainfall, we used the Climatic Research Units gridded data set (CRU TS3.1) described by Harris et al. 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). 0000188939 00000 n From these model experiments we extracted monthly means of rainfall for Ethiopia and global SST patterns, which were converted into seasonal indices for our teleconnection analysis. Introduction. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. Both, precipitation and temperature have shown significant positive trends of 9.7 10 2 /yr and 2.7 10 2 /yr respectively over the study region from 1982 to 2015. Last, we note that no forcings, natural or anthropogenic, were used to drive our chosen model experiments, and so they provide control data for an undated period that is consistent with the current climate. 2015: Journal of Climate, 28(23), DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1. and adaptation options in Ethiopia. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. - 81.89.100.63. rainfall on the basis of gridded data and interpolation. Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. (p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. In general, the eastern part of the. doi:10.1002/joc.3560, Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. Figure7 shows the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 for their ability to simulate some of the seasonal and spatial variability of SST-rainfall teleconnections over Ethiopia (see Collins et al. MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. 2). Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. For our study, we considered the rainfall data for the period 19551995 to maintain the quality of data because in the early twentieth century some stations had not been established, and from the end of the twentieth century some stations had ceased reporting or their data was not readily available. 2011a). We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. Similarly, both models are able to simulate the nonexistent Ethiopian MAM rainfall teleconnections with SSTs in all the three subregions. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. J Climate 16:27352751. To do so, five SSTs time series (TAD, EqEAtl, CIndO, IOD and Nio3.4) that are known to affect the Ethiopian rainfall (Gissila et al. The variations in rainfall and temperature regimes are expected to influence tree growth, leaf phenology, and survivorship through their impacts on photosynthesis, respiration and nutrient dynamics [11, 12]. Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators Lag correlation mapsof 1, 2 or 3monthswere also constructed, and show the same patterns as the zero-lag maps, but with gradually decreasing magnitude as lag increases. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). And early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead. Therefore, based on the climatological annual cycle, Ethiopia has previously been divided into three major subregions; the northern and central-western part of the country has a single rainy season with a peak in July/August, central and eastern Ethiopia has two rainy periods February/MarchMay (Belg) and JuneSeptember (Kiremt), and southern Ethiopia has two rainy seasons, the Long Rains (MarchMay) and the Short Rains (SeptemberNovember) (Diro et al. Find other country and regional climate risk management resources here. JAS rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean. You can visualize data for the current climatology through spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or as a time . doi:10.1038/385516a0, Cheung WH, Senay G, Singh A (2008) Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. 0 0000005891 00000 n The cold, moist temperate zone covers the Afro-alpine areas on the highest plateaus between 3,200 and 3,500 m; average temperatures are below 10C and annual rainfall averages less than 800 mm. The research was aimed at addressing the national and local issues of climate change and was done by analyzing time series temperature and rainfall trends in the highlands of Ethiopia and LTSB in particular. local physiography nor by the expansion of the urban areas. GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. This variability ranges over many time and space scales such as localized thunderstorms and tornadoes, to larger-scale storms, to droughts, to multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century time scales. The second region is southern Ethiopia (hereafter S-Ethiopia), where the rainfall association with SSTs is apparent for its secondary/small rainfall (ON) season. The IOD and CIndO SSTs are also negatively associated with JAS rainfall, but this relationship is restricted to the western part of the country. Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. 2003). Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. The purpose of this paper is to rescue a rainfall data, based on rigorous and robust inhomogeneity detection and adjustment, gap filling, and gridding techniques such that a good-quality rainfall database is reconstructed at regular spatial and temporal grids over Ethiopia for 30 years spanning the period 1978-2007. Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al analysis along the Rift Valley cli- is. 2009). The aim of the study is to analyze the spatio-temporal variability and projection of rainfall and temperature (2021-2040) in Suha watershed, North West highlands of Ethiopia. 0000000016 00000 n For this study, croplands of the Atsela-Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. In contrast, the pattern of correlations for September is quite different, and that for December is statistically insignificant. "Climate & Averages in Addis Ababa." J Geophys Res 98:219235. The wettest months are June and September. 156 45 The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. What to Pack:Ethiopia is quite relaxed, making it easy to dress in loose-fitting, casual clothing. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. 2009a). Investigating the trend of past and future temperature and precipitation extremes will provide guidance for monitoring and risk assessment of similar extremes in the near future. For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a.